Probably Stolen starts off looking like a chill shop management game, but things quickly spiral when that rent notice arrives. Keeping your store running against the ticking clock of rising rent and unpredictable customers is what hooks players — it’s a real test of your trading savvy and risk management.
Your job is simple on paper: buy stuff, sell stuff, keep the lights on and somehow scrape together enough credits to buy the place outright before the landlord decides you’re more valuable as a cautionary example. Easy, right? The early game has a habit of laughing at that optimism.
Important Note: This text has been written based on the demo version of the game. Some aspects of the game may be changed after the full release. This text will be updated after the scheduled final release on October 28, 2026..
How Probably Stolen Works You begin with just a storefront, a few goods, and a never-so-friendly rent deadline looming overhead. Every day involves opening your shop, dealing with quirky customers, sourcing stock at smart prices, managing inventory, and fending off scammers. Nights are for scavenging dumping grounds, visiting contacts, and running machines—all while praying your power cells hold out. The ultimate goal is clear-cut: build enough cash and reputation to own your shop outright before the landlord decides it’s easier to shut you down. Until then, you’re stuck playing catch-up with rent that just keeps climbing.
You start with a storefront, a handful of goods and a rent deadline that already feels personal. Every day you open the shutters, deal with whatever weirdos walk in, buy low, sell high (or at least higher than you paid), manage inventory and try not to get scammed into oblivion.
Overnight you can scavenge the dumping grounds, visit special contacts, run machines and pray your power cells don’t die at the worst possible moment.
The long-term goal is straightforward: earn enough money and reputation to buy out your shop. Until then you’re just renting and the rent has a nasty habit of climbing.
Probably Stolen Starting Scenarios Explained There are a few different paths to shop ownership: Scenario What You Sell Main Risk Water Merchant Water (filtered, bottled, graded) Liability, quality testing, demand swings Rat Wrangler Rats (and eventually meat) Disease, overcrowding, slow early growth Rock Bottom Basically nothing useful Everything is harder
The game gives you a few different ways to begin life as an entrepreneur. Here’s what I’ve experienced so far:
| Scenario | What You Sell | Main Risk |
| Water Merchant | Water (filtered, bottled, graded) | Liability, quality testing, demand swings |
| Rat Wrangler | Rats (and eventually meat) | Disease, overcrowding, slow early growth |
| Rock Bottom | Basically nothing useful | Everything is harder |
The Water Merchant start is the shiny new demo option..
Best Starting Scenario for Beginners The Water Merchant route simplifies things by giving you hands-on tools like testing strips, filters, jugs, and a bottle printer right away. While it’s still easy to screw up (ghost water is a pain), the gameplay loop is straightforward and water almost always sells. It’s a safe bet for learning the ropes. Rat Wrangler starts kick in once you’ve got your footing, focusing on breeding and managing rats—a different challenge altogether. Rock Bottom is for players who like an uphill battle from minute one.
Water Merchant is one of the easiest starts to understand because its gameplay loop is straightforward. You get testing strips, a filter setup, a jug and the bottle printer right away. It’s still possible to mess up (hello, ghost water), but the core loop is clear and the goods are always in demand.
Rat Wrangler is more of a mid-game snowball once you figure out breeding and culling. Rock Bottom is exactly what it sounds like, the game looking you dead in the eye and saying good luck.
Probably Stolen Water Merchant Guide Choose the Water Merchant scenario to jump into the water trade. Starting gear includes everything to test, purify, store, and bottle water. Learning each step helps you make higher-grade products that fetch better prices. Hard mode ups the challenge with higher rent and tighter margins, but starting easy to get the hang of it is smart.
This is the big new demo starting path. To start it, pick the Water Merchant scenario (or the water-focused training path). You begin with testing equipment, purification tools, extra storage, water containers and usually a bottle printer. This teaches you the whole process of production to make the final product.
Hard mode is available if you want the rent and markup to feel extra spicy. But take it easy early on.
How water trading works
How Water Trading Works
Effective water trading hinges on these fundamentals:
- Test every batch with strips to identify if it’s base, high-quality, pure, rust, or ghost water.
- Use filters and purification equipment to upgrade water quality where possible.
- Bottle your water with the bottle printer, unlocking larger bottles as you improve machinery.
- Sell according to fluctuating demand—timing your stock against shortages can maximize profits.
Remember, selling the wrong grade to the wrong customers damages your reputation and can lead to angry returns. Always keep testing strips and filters handy.
- Test everything. Strips tell you if you’re looking at base, high-quality, pure, rust or the dreaded ghost water.
- Filter and purify. Rust water can be stepped up, base water can become high-quality and pure water is the premium stuff.
- Bottle it. The bottle printer (and its upgrades) lets you turn bulk water into sellable containers. Larger bottles become available after upgrades.
- Sell it. Demand fluctuates. Shortages and surpluses hit regularly, so timing matters.
Water carries real liability. Sell the wrong grade to the wrong person and you can lose reputation or face angry returns. Keep some testing strips and filters in reserve.
Water Merchant Tips
Water Merchant Tips
Don’t blow your entire budget buying stock on day one — rent deadlines are unforgiving and can sink an early run fast.
Upgrade your bottle printer and storage incrementally, and keep an eye on market news to catch water shortages or spikes in demand. Having a fridge to chill or freeze water adds value, though it consumes power, so balance usage wisely.
Pure and high-quality water remain your prime revenue drivers here.
Upgrade the bottle printer and storage gradually. Watch the newspaper and market events because water shortages can create profitable opportunities if you are prepared.
A fridge can chill or freeze water for extra value or longer storage, but it eats power and pure water and high-quality water are your money-makers here.
How To Make Money in Probably Stolen
How To Make Money in Probably Stolen
The rule "buy low, sell high" stands true. Watch for demand cycles among different item categories like food, medical supplies, materials, and weapons. Aging wine can be a lucrative side income—older bottles sell for more.
Always inspect goods before purchase using your magnifying glass and handbook to spot counterfeits. Confront sellers over discrepancies to negotiate better prices but beware—getting it wrong costs reputation.
Sell items with good margins. Food, medical supplies, materials, household goods, substances and weapons all have their days. Watch for demand spikes (weapon demand, medical shortage, household relief drives, etc.). Age wine when you can, older bottles sell for more.
Also, don’t forget to Inspect goods before buying. The magnifying glass and handbook are your best friends. Counterfeit cigarettes, fake Hemingway packs, damaged injectors and mislabeled water are everywhere.
One discrepancy is enough to confront the seller and force a lower price. Get it wrong and you lose reputation.
Side Income Sources
These may help you a lot:
Side Income Sources
Additional moneymakers come from scavenging the dumping grounds for rare scrap and tools, offering appraisal services after joining the board, and leveraging special contacts like Dr. Jackson for machines or Giorgio for legendary finds.
Rat farming also becomes a profitable venture after establishing a colony, turning big rats into meat for sale. Tailoring sales to customer tiers helps—higher-level buyers pay premiums, while lower levels move your volume.
Probably Stolen Rent Explained
Probably Stolen Rent Explained
Rent is the game’s relentless boss battle. Starting manageable, it escalates fast and falling behind spells disaster. Always prioritize paying rent—even if it means selling off stock you’d rather keep.
Pay it. Always. Even if it means selling something you wanted to keep.
How To Buy Your Shop in Probably Stolen
How To Buy Your Shop in Probably Stolen
Owning your shop is the real victory. Build credits carefully, increase reputation, and plan your expansions wisely. The machines, upgrades, and fancy touches are all just stepping stones to telling the landlord to shove off for good.
Probably Stolen Trading Guide
Probably Stolen Trading Guide
Trading mastery is key. The payoff for learning to buy smart and sell strategically pays dividends in this game.
Buying
Buying
Always inspect goods before buying. Compare prices and trust your knowledge to detect scams. Wholesale deals can be solid but don’t be blinded by a discount on suspicious goods. Walk away if it feels off.
Selling
Selling
Match your products to the right customers. Engineers are hungry for modules and materials, security looks for weapons and ammo, but safety comes first. Higher-tier buyers pay more but are picky; lower-tier buyers prioritize volume. Use window displays strategically to attract your target clientele.
Haggling
Haggling
Negotiation is a dance: push for better prices when selling, offer discounts to close deals, and leverage your reputation to gain an edge. Calling out counterfeit goods or lowball offers can protect your profits and boost your standing.
How To Deal with Stolen Goods & Contraband
How To Deal with Stolen Goods & Contraband
Stolen goods are a core part of the game’s theme. They bring profit but also risk. Keep contraband hidden in designated smuggler’s bays and sell only to shady but trustworthy contacts.
Exposure of illegal items triggers inspections and damages reputation with security factions. Reporting sellers can net cash and security goodwill but alienates the black market and lower classes.
Handle contraband like radioactive cats—profitable if managed well, disastrous if mishandled.
Hide the spicy stuff in dedicated storage (smuggler’s bays is a good option). Selling to the right shady contacts is fine. Selling to the wrong person or leaving contraband in the open display, can trigger inspections, sting operations or reputation hits with security.
Reporting mid-level or higher contraband sellers to security can earn you money and security rep, but it tanks your standing with the lower levels and black market.
Treat illegal goods like radioactive cats: profitable if handled carefully, catastrophic if they get out.
Probably Stolen Factions and Reputation Explained
Probably Stolen Factions and Reputation Explained
Various factions such as security, the black market, and neighborhood groups watch every move. High reputation brings better deals and fewer scams; low reputation means higher prices and more hassles.
Building relationships with key groups smooths your run and provides crucial advantages down the line.
Maxing reputation with key groups is one of the strongest long-term plays. It doesn’t make you invincible, but it makes life a lot smoother.